Saturday's storm brings more rain and strong winds. I am bumping up the coverage to 50% but keeping the chance for severe storms along the Gulf Coast.
Rain eases to showers overnight and Friday looks mainly dry through the Capital Region - a welcome break between systems. Michigan Committee for Severe Weather Awareness tells us "tornadoes generally develop from severe thunderstorms, and are more likely to occur when warm, humid air along the ground is forced up rapidly by cooler air and develops into a spinning funnel". Secondary threats will be locally heavy rainfall and lightning.
Heads up! A few thunderstorms could be strong to severe this weekend.
Damaging winds will be the biggest threat with any storms that develop.
The primary limiting factor will be low instability values over the northern half of the state; higher CAPE values will be over south Alabama during the pre-dawn hours Saturday. The Storm Prediction Center indicates that we will see a "slight" risk for severe storms.
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Rain and storm chances continue to fluctuate for Monday. There is going to be about a 30-degree temperature difference between Friday afternoon and Saturday morning.
It is also going to get breezy out of the NNE at 10-20 miles per hour making it feel rather cool to be outside at the Po-Boy or Boudin festivals.
Friday is shaping up to be a warm, humid and breezy day with highs in the upper 70s and winds out of the south at 10-20 miles per hour.
A FIRST ALERT for freezing temperatures on Sunday morning. Frost also was in the forecast for Wednesday night of this week. FutureTrack may be a little too warm Sunday morning.